How To Tell When A Slot Machine Will Hit
There really is no definitive way to know when a slot machine will deliver a jackpot or handpay win. Slot machines operate according to a random number generator that determines if a spin is a winner and thus, require no tactical skill; you put your money in and spin. Any spin can be a big winner—or cause you to lose your bet. There are no signals to look for that can tell you when a slot machine is ready to pay off. Results are random and all results are possible on all spins. There is no way for players to tell a slot game’s payback percentage. While casino-wide averages often are published by gaming boards, individual game percentages are not. If you really want to know how to tell when a real money slot machine becomes due, you must familiarize yourself with some probability concepts. The most important of these concepts is the concept of the random, independent event. In most gambling games, every bet you place is on a random, independent event. Sit in front of the machine for 224 seconds so the phone can calibrate with the slot machine. Once your signal has locked in on the machine’s rolling cycle, you dial 311 and wait for 5 rings then your phone will turn off and turn back on and no bars will be lit for the signal strength. One system circulating the Internet says that one can watch for “patterns” on the reels of a traditional-style slot machines for clues as to when the next spin will be a jackpot, and adjust your bet accordingly. Another actually tells the player to watch the reels on a traditional slot machine for wiggling.
A slot machine is loose when it pays out a lot of money. It also needs to do this often to be considered loose. You’ll see some writers say that a loose slot machine is one with a high payback percentage, but that’s not enough to qualify as loose. It also needs to have low volatility.
What’s the difference?
The payback percentage is a function of how much the prizes pay compared to how often they hit. I could create a slot machine that pays off only one prize every million spins and that pays off 1.2 million coins when it does.
That machine would provide the player with an edge, a payback percentage of over 100%, but it still wouldn’t be a “loose” machine. In fact, it would be one of the tightest machines in the casino, because it only hits on average once every million spins.
That’s what volatility means when you’re playing slots. The more often a game hits a winning combination, the less volatile the game is. Most slot machine games have a hit ratio of around 30% or so now, which means that you’ll see some kind of win about 1/3 of the time.
The size of the wins is small enough that the game still makes a profit for the casino.
Your goal should be to find the loosest slot machines you can.
The Best You Can Do Is Estimate
The math behind slot machines and other gambling games is based on long-term results, not short-term results. You can make some guesses about the settings for a game based on short-term results, but they’re not necessarily accurate.
Here’s one way you could measure the hit ratio for a slot machine game, though:
You could track how many spins you make, and also track how many of those spins resulted in a win. That would provide you with the actual hit ratio for that session.
For example, if you made 300 spins on a slot machine over the course of half an hour, and you saw 100 winning spins, you had a hit ratio of 33.3%.
If you only saw 50 winning spins, your hit ratio would only be 16.67%.
The game with the 33.3% hit ratio is probably “looser” than the game with the 16.67% hit ratio.
The Concept of Naked Pulls
Years ago I read a book about strategy when playing slot machines by John Patrick. It’s a terrible book, and I don’t recommend it.
But he did offer one concept that I thought was interesting:
The naked pulls concept.
A naked pull is one in which you get no winnings at all.
Patrick’s advice is to quit playing a slot machine once you’ve had a certain number of naked pulls in a row. I don’t remember if the number he suggested was 7 or 9, but it was something like that.
Here’s the thing, though:
A slot machine could have a hit ratio of 50% and still see 7 or 9 losing pulls in a row. It won’t happen often, but it will still happen several times a day just because of random variance.
Slot machines aren’t set on times or cycles. They have a random number generator which determines how often a winning symbol gets hit, but it doesn’t have a memory of what happened on previous spins.
Every spin of the reels on a slot machine is an independent event. This means that it isn’t affected by the previous spin.
Some of the time, if you walk away from a machine that has had several losing spins in a row, you’ll have avoided a tight machine.
Other times, you’ll just be walking away from a loose machine for no reason other than short-term variance.
What’s More Important? Hit Ratio or Payback Percentage?
Deciding which of these 2 factors is more important is more about your temperament as a gambler than anything else.
If you’re impatient and don’t want to lose a lot of money fast, you should look for a game that seems to have a high hit ratio. I’ve played slot machines in land-based casinos which hit 40% of the time while I was there. I didn’t walk away with a lot of winnings, because the sizes of the prizes were low.
But I didn’t lose a lot of money, either.
You could find a game with a hit ratio of only 20% that has a payback percentage that’s 5% higher than a similar machine with a 40% hit ratio.
You can’t really rank these 2 factors in importance, because they fall into a relatively narrow range.
Most slot machines have a hit ratio in the 20% to 35% range, and their payback percentages fall in the 75% to 95% range.
The payback percentage has the bigger range, but it’s impossible to calculate with any degree of statistical confidence.
How Would You Calculate a Payback Percentage for a Slot Machine Based on Your Actual Results?
The math behind calculating a payback percentage isn’t hard. You just calculate how much money you’ve wagered in a machine and how much you have left when you’re done. The amount you’ve lost is divided by the amount you’ve wagered to give you the actual payback percentage for that session.
I did this as an experiment not long ago. I played a slot machine for $1.25 per spin over the course of 400 spins. It’s easy to see how much I wagered in that scenario – it was $500.
When I finished playing, I had lost $100, which meant that I’d gotten $400 back in winnings from the game.
This means I lost 20% of what I wagered, which would be the game’s “hold.”
The payback percentage was 80%.
What does that say about how loose or tight the game is?
Not much.
When you’re calculating things like payback percentage and house edge, you’re calculating statistical events.
And if you’ve read much of what I’ve written about probability and gambling, you already know that in the short run, anything can happen.
If I’d finished that session with $600 and a net win of $100, I’d have seen a payback percentage of 120%, and I can promise you one thing:
That’s NOT the long-term expected payback percentage for that slot machine.
It can be a fun exercise to keep up with your actual payback percentage over time. If nothing else, it slows down the number of bets per hour you’re making, which will have the indirect effect of reducing your average hourly losses.
Some Tips for Finding Loose Slot Machines
The problem with offering tips for finding loose slot machines is that many of them are based on pure conjecture.
For years, everyone suggested that you play the slot machines closest to the walkways in the casino. The premise was that some slot machine technician had suggested the managers put the loosest machines there so they could attract more gamblers.
This is a myth that has since been dispelled.
Another piece of advice you’ll often see is that you should play flat-top slot machines instead of progressives. In this case, I lean toward believing this one. You could play a progressive slot machine where the jackpot is high enough that you could have an edge over the casino, but it would still be tighter than a game with a 1000-coin jackpot.
Here’s why:
In other words, if you’re not likely to hit the jackpot in your lifetime, it might as well not exist when calculating how loose or tight the game is.
You’ll also see people advise you to play for higher stakes. The idea is that the payback percentage goes up as the denominations go up.
This is likely true, too, but you still shouldn’t play for stakes you’re not comfortable with.
Conclusion
The best possible advice I could give you about finding a loose slot machine is this:
Give it up.
It’s virtually impossible to accomplish this goal.
Also, almost any other game in the casino will cost you less money in the long run than the slot machines will.
But if you are going to play, at least try to play the games with the flat top jackpots for the highest denomination you can easily afford.
Telling when a machine is “due to hit” is the Holy Grail of the slot world
By Frank Legato
It’s one of the most-asked questions among slot players: Which machines are due to hit? Or, how do I tell when a machine is due? Or, which machines are the best to play, right now?
These are not only among the most-often questions asked in letters to this and other player magazines; they are questions asked at casinos across the country, to slot attendants and floor managers: “Where are the hot machines?”
Despite all that has been written about the workings of the modern slot machine, there is still a prevailing notion among players that these questions can be answered—that attendants can give you a hot tip on a machine that’s about to hit; that some outward signs visible on a slot game can show that a machine is close to a jackpot.
Helping this notion is the wealth of “slot system” trash available on the Internet and elsewhere, offering “visual clues” to when a game is “about to hit.”
The Internet “systems” are all scams, and the notions about machines being “due” are misguided. The reason is that a slot machine’s computer is constantly selecting new results—results that have nothing to do with what the machine did three spins ago, four hours ago, for the past week or for the past year.
It all comes down to our old friend: the random number generator. A slot machine’s computer contains what is basically a digital duplication of physical reels. Before the early 1980s, the probability of hitting jackpots, and their likelihood on any give spin, was tied to how many symbols and blanks—known as “stops”—were on each physical reel. The old electro-mechanical slots had 22 stops on each reel. By logging the symbols that landed on each reel, it was possible to perform calculations that would give you the odds of a jackpot landing on a given spin.
That all changed, however, with computerization of the process. For casinos, the problem with physical stops was that the odds of hitting the top jackpot could only be as long as the number of stops on each reel would allow. The use of a random number generator allows “virtual” reels—a computer simulation of reels containing as many symbols as the programmer desires. Numbers in the program represent each stop on each reel. If the programmer wants a low-paying or non-paying symbol—say, a blank—to appear more often, it is duplicated in the program so the random number generator selects it more often.
Thus, instead of 22 stops per reel, you may have 60 stops, hundreds of stops—as many as the programmer wishes, while staying within the odds limits set by the state. This is why odds can no longer be calculated through a formula involving the number of symbols on physical reels. The 22 symbols visible to the player no longer represent the slot machine’s probabilities. They display the symbols that can lead to combinations, but there is no way for the player to know how many numbers correspond to those symbols. The more of them the computer considers there to be on a reel, the more likely it will be selected by the RNG.
The All-Important RNG
The random number generator in a slot machine is just what the name indicates—it is a software program that generates numbers at random, from the list of numbers entered to represent each reel stop. The RNG generates more than a hundred sets of numbers every second, and it generates them continuously, even when the slot machine is idle. This is why each result is independent of every other result on a slot machine. The random generation of numbers is continuous, and no one sitting at a machine can predict which of the numbers the RNG will have generated at the instant you push the spin button.
When you push the spin button, the computer takes a snapshot of the numbers generated that instant by the RNG, and translates it into a reel result. An instant before you push the button, the RNG is generating an entirely different set of numbers; an instant later, yet another set. No one looking at the slot machine can predict the number it will choose next.
This is why a slot machine can never be said to be “due” to hit a jackpot. It is also why those systems you find on the Internet will never work.
One system circulating the Internet says that one can watch for “patterns” on the reels of a traditional-style slot machines for clues as to when the next spin will be a jackpot, and adjust your bet accordingly. Another actually tells the player to watch the reels on a traditional slot machine for wiggling. Bet a single coin until you see the reels wiggle, then bet the max because the wiggle means a jackpot is coming.
These gimmicks are all nonsense. No “pattern” formed by symbols in the pay window—an “X” formed by bar symbols, for instance—is indicative of what will come next. And, “wiggling” reels may mean that the slot machine is old and in need of repair, but nothing else. The physical reels are only there to do what the computer tells them to do. They are display mechanisms. They do the same thing as a video screen—communicate to the player the result at which the computer’s RNG has arrived.
Tips from Attendants
Many players still feel that a slot attendant or other floor person who is in one location all day can tell them which machines are “hot”—in other words, which machines are about to pay off. They will throw the employee a tip to identify a hot machine.
How To Tell When A Slot Machine Will Hit Jackpot
It is a waste of money. Even if a certain machine has been paying off all day, this is no indication it will continue to pay off tonight. A slot machine’s cycles are not predictable.
The only thing an attendant or floor person can give you is historical information. The sole place this historical information may be useful on a slot floor is a progressive bank—one that has been in place in the same location for a long time. The useful historical information an employee can give you here is the level at which the progressive jackpot has hit on that game. If it is substantially above that, other players who are familiar with the link will give that bank of slots more play than normal—the “jackpot fever” phenomenon. Jackpot fever pushes more coins through the game. With more changes for one of those machines to generate the winning combination, it is more likely it will hit.
How To Tell When A Slot Machine Will Hit Yesterday
More likely, but not guaranteed. And that is the vital part of my message: Even if a progressive is higher than ever before, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s definitely going to hit soon. It could go higher, and even higher—and wait until well after your bankroll is gone.